房地产行业第52周周报：本周新房成交同比由正转负，住建部工作会议重点提及推进旧改，持续关注“大旧改”

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate industry, emphasizing a clear direction towards stabilization and economic recovery policies [3]. Core Insights - New housing transaction area has shown a month-on-month increase, but year-on-year figures have turned negative, indicating diminishing policy effects after a previous market recovery [3][15]. - The second-hand housing transaction area has seen a narrowing decline month-on-month, with year-on-year growth still robust in first-tier cities [3][15]. - New housing inventory has decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year, with a reduction in the de-stocking cycle [3][15]. Summary by Sections 1. New Housing Market Tracking - In 40 key cities, new housing transaction volume reached 42,000 units, with a month-on-month increase of 11.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%. The transaction area was 457.8 million square meters, up 12.2% month-on-month but down 1.7% year-on-year [3][16]. - Transaction volumes in first, second, and third/fourth-tier cities showed month-on-month growth rates of 19.0%, 20.7%, and -16.0%, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.9%, -3.7%, and -12.4% [3][16]. 2. Second-Hand Housing Market Tracking - The transaction area for second-hand housing in 18 cities was 227.7 million square meters, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.3% but a year-on-year increase of 34.6% [3][15]. - First, second, and third/fourth-tier cities experienced month-on-month growth rates of -2.4%, 7.7%, and -18.6%, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 60.4%, 24.1%, and 8.3% [3][15]. 3. Inventory Tracking - The new housing inventory in 12 cities was 9,053 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 3.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.3% [3][20]. - The de-stocking cycle for new housing inventory was 12.3 months, down 0.9 months month-on-month and down 3.2 months year-on-year [3][20]. 4. Land Market Tracking - The total land area transacted in 100 cities was 58.6 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 12.9% but a year-on-year decrease of 7.3% [3][11]. - The total land transaction price was 1535.5 billion, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 37.0% but a year-on-year decrease of 8.1% [3][11]. 5. Policy Overview - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized four key areas for 2025: stabilizing the real estate market, developing new models, promoting urban renewal, and ensuring quality housing [3][15]. - Local policies include measures in cities like Shenzhen and Taiyuan to enhance housing accessibility and streamline sales processes [3][15]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines: companies expected to benefit from policy easing, those with strong urban presence, and local state-owned enterprises benefiting from debt relief and urban renewal [3][15].