如何看待11月生猪产能数据？

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" [11] Core Insights - As of November 2024, the breeding sow inventory reached 40.8 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 0.2% but a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%, indicating a recovery phase in sow production capacity [8][34] - The report anticipates that after the Spring Festival, pork prices may face downward pressure due to potential oversupply during the consumption off-season in 2025 [8][34] - Recommended companies include leading breeding enterprises with cost advantages such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, as well as companies in the veterinary and feed sectors like Haida Group [8][34] Summary by Sections 1. November Breeding Sow Inventory Changes - The breeding sow inventory showed a continuous increase in November, with a total of 40.8 million heads, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 0.2% [16][34] - The number of newborn piglets from August to October 2024 decreased by 1.6% compared to the same period last year, but remains at a relatively high level historically [8][34] 2. Future Pork Price Trends and Production Capacity Changes - The report predicts that pork prices will be under pressure in 2025 due to an increase in breeding sow inventory and improved production efficiency [29][50] - The breeding sow inventory is expected to continue a stable and slight increase, supported by optimistic market expectations and declining feed costs [51][53] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on low-cost pig farming enterprises, highlighting that pork prices peaked in August 2024 at over 21 CNY/kg and have since declined to 15.42 CNY/kg by December 26, 2024 [54] - The report emphasizes the potential for profitability in pig farming leading up to the Spring Festival, driven by seasonal demand [54]