策略周报：1月行情的配置思路

Market Overview - Historical data indicates that January market performance before the Spring Festival tends to be weak, with low return expectations and significant downside risks in certain years[4] - The market has not shown a clear upward trend in December 2024, suggesting a potential continuation of volatility into January 2025[7] Investment Strategy - The primary strategy for January 2025 should focus on volatility control, with an emphasis on low-volatility absolute return strategies if a single style is adopted[4] - For a multi-style approach, combining dividend stocks with cyclical and quality styles offers a better cost-performance ratio[4] Risk Factors - Key risks include significant geopolitical changes affecting global market risk appetite, less than expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, unexpected changes in market liquidity, and domestic economic recovery falling short of expectations[8] Performance Insights - From 2010 to 2024, the overall market has shown considerable volatility, with only a few years (2012, 2013, 2019, and 2023) demonstrating stable upward trends[19] - The average return for the low-volatility strategy across various years has been positive, successfully controlling volatility in most cases[32] Style and Sector Analysis - The current market sentiment is shifting towards value stocks, with large-cap indices outperforming small-cap indices[50] - Recent performance shows that banks and consumer electronics have positive returns, while sectors like media and social services lag behind[50]