农林牧渔行业2025年投资策略：聚焦养殖景气切换，宠物高景气持续发酵

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the livestock sector, specifically recommending Muyuan Foods (002714), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498), and Lihua Agricultural (300761) [79][83][87]. Core Insights - The livestock sector is focusing on the transition of breeding prosperity, with cost reduction and efficiency enhancement as key priorities. The national breeding sow inventory was 39.86 million heads at the end of April 2024, a decrease of 9.2% from the peak in 2023, marking a four-year low. As of October 2024, the inventory was 40.73 million heads, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2% [6][8]. - The animal health sector is experiencing a recovery in performance, with growth potential in the pet health market. The pet consumption market is expected to grow by 7.5% in 2024, reaching 300.2 billion yuan, with significant growth in the pet vaccine segment [60][73]. Summary by Sections Livestock Sector - The focus is on the transition of breeding prosperity, with a significant reduction in breeding sow inventory and a cautious industry outlook due to previous losses. The profitability of enterprises is emphasized, with recommendations for companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group [6][49]. - The average price of live pigs increased from 14.2 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to 20.4 yuan/kg in August 2024, but fell below 16 yuan/kg by December 20, 2024 [12][56]. - The industry is facing high asset-liability ratios, which limit capacity growth. The overall debt ratio increased from 53.5% in early 2021 to 68.3% in Q3 2023, although it improved to 60.6% by Q3 2024 [19][20]. Animal Health Sector - The animal health index shows a lag compared to pig prices and breeding indices, but there are signs of recovery in revenue and profitability for many animal health companies in Q3 2024. The market for pet vaccines is expected to grow significantly due to the increasing number of pets and the domestic market's expansion [7][71]. - The report highlights the potential for domestic alternatives in the pet pharmaceutical market, with several companies gaining approval for new products, indicating a shift away from reliance on imported products [63][65]. Key Investment Targets - Muyuan Foods is noted for its cost advantages and improved production metrics, with a projected EPS of 2.31 yuan for 2024, corresponding to a dynamic PE of 17 times [79]. - Wens Foodstuff Group is expected to achieve significant growth in both pig and chicken production, with a projected EPS of 1.19 yuan for 2024 [83]. - Lihua Agricultural is anticipated to turn profitable in 2024, with a projected EPS of 1.85 yuan, benefiting from low production costs and increased market demand [87].