2024年干线货运充电需求模型及兆瓦快充进展报告

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the heavy-duty vehicle (HDV) charging infrastructure, driven by regulatory support and financial incentives [3][7][51]. Core Insights - The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) provides substantial subsidies for charging infrastructure and zero-emission commercial vehicles, enhancing the market potential for electric trucks [3][8]. - California's regulations set ambitious sales targets for zero-emission trucks, which are expected to drive significant market growth [6][30]. - The report forecasts that by 2030, the penetration rate of zero-emission vehicles in the HDV sector could reach between 39% and 48% [38]. Charging Demand Model - The charging demand model for HDVs is based on traffic data and focuses on key activity areas, predicting the need for both public and private charging stations [10][31]. - The model considers daily vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) and energy consumption to simulate charging needs across different locations and vehicle types [31][32]. - By 2030, the report estimates that the daily energy consumption for zero-emission vehicles in fleets could reach 140,000 megawatt-hours [35]. Market Development - The report highlights that the U.S. market for zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles is expected to grow significantly due to supportive fiscal policies and infrastructure development [7][30]. - In Europe, the deployment of megawatt charging stations (MCS) is seen as crucial to meet the energy demands of long-haul electric trucks [45][50]. - The report notes that by 2030, Europe plans to have 2,400 dedicated charging stations for trucks, with a focus on combined charging systems (CCS) and MCS [52]. Regulatory Framework - The report discusses the regulatory landscape, including the Advanced Clean Trucks (ACT) and Advanced Clean Fleets (ACF) regulations in California, which aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from heavy-duty vehicles [2][6]. - The European Union's AFIR legislation sets targets for public infrastructure deployment, which is expected to support the transition to zero-emission freight transport [51][53].