中复神鹰：跟踪点评报告：12月碳纤维价格小幅回落，四季度盈利或进一步承压

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been downgraded to "增持" (Overweight) due to the continued decline in carbon fiber prices and the company's profitability challenges [13] Core Views - The carbon fiber industry is currently in a downward cycle, with prices continuing to decline, leading to a significant impact on the company's profitability [13] - The company reported a net loss in the first three quarters of 2024, with a further decline expected in Q4 due to continued price pressures [12] - The company's new 30,000-ton capacity project in Lianyungang is progressing, with partial production expected by the end of 2025 [12] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024E is projected to be 1,522 million yuan, a decrease of 32.63% compared to 2023 [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024E is expected to be -41 million yuan, a significant decline from 318 million yuan in 2023 [6] - The company's ROE (attributable to the parent company) is projected to be -0.86% in 2024E, down from 6.56% in 2023 [6] Profitability - The company's gross margin for 2024E is expected to be 21.9%, down from 30.6% in 2023 [3] - EBITDA margin for 2024E is projected to be 25.9%, compared to 26.7% in 2023 [3] - The net profit margin attributable to the parent company is expected to be -2.7% in 2024E, a significant decline from 14.1% in 2023 [3] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio for 2024E is not applicable (na), while the P/B ratio is expected to be 3.9 [6] - The EV/EBITDA ratio for 2024E is projected to be 55.6, up from 35.1 in 2023 [3] Industry and Market Conditions - Carbon fiber prices in December 2024 experienced a slight decline, with the average price dropping by 1.20% month-on-month [11] - Raw material prices, particularly for acrylonitrile, increased by 5.67% month-on-month, further pressuring production costs [11] - The industry faces oversupply, with no new capacity added in December 2024, and most existing facilities maintaining stable production [11] Future Outlook - The company's profitability is expected to remain under pressure in Q4 2024 due to further declines in carbon fiber prices [12] - The timeline for price recovery in the carbon fiber industry remains uncertain, given the current oversupply situation [13]