GREE(000651) Tianfeng Securities·2025-01-01 08:57Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 8.2x for 2024, 7.7x for 2025, and 7.3x for 2026 [10][19][30]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a significant increase in retail sales in the domestic air conditioning industry due to the promotion of trade-in programs, indicating a potential turning point for its air conditioning business [10][15]. - The projected net profits for the company are estimated to be 31 billion, 32.9 billion, and 34.7 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [10][11]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2022 was 190.15 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 205.02 billion yuan in 2023, followed by a slight decrease to 200.63 billion yuan in 2024 [11][32]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to grow from 24.51 billion yuan in 2022 to 29.02 billion yuan in 2023, and further to 31.02 billion yuan in 2024 [11][32]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 4.38 yuan in 2022 to 5.18 yuan in 2023, reaching 5.54 yuan in 2024 [11][32]. Dividend Policy - The company has a strong focus on shareholder returns, with a proposed cash dividend of 10 yuan per 10 shares for the first half of 2024, reflecting a payout ratio of 39% [13][17]. - The company aims to distribute a total cash dividend of no less than 50% of its net profit annually from 2022 to 2024, ensuring consistent returns to shareholders [23]. Shareholder Return Plan - The company has outlined a three-year shareholder return plan, committing to distribute at least 30% of the average distributable profits over the last three years [23]. Market Performance - The company's stock price has shown a significant increase, outperforming the market with a 53% rise compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [12]. Financial Ratios - The company’s price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decrease from 2.63 in 2022 to 1.76 in 2026, indicating improved valuation over time [11][34]. - The debt-to-asset ratio stands at 65.05%, reflecting the company's leverage position [19]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the company is well-positioned for growth in the coming years, particularly in the air conditioning sector, which is expected to recover and expand [10][15].