2025年宏观经济展望：“冲击与韧性”

Economic Growth Projections - Global GDP growth is projected to be 3.2% in 2025, consistent with 2024, and below the pre-pandemic average of 3.8%[70] - China's GDP growth is expected to reach approximately 4.7% in 2025, up from 4.0% in 2024[22] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment growth is anticipated to slightly accelerate, with infrastructure and manufacturing investments maintaining rapid growth, while real estate investment decline is expected to narrow[22] - Social retail sales growth is projected to increase from 3.8% in 2024 to 6.0% in 2025, with final consumption contributing 70%-80% to economic growth[125] Monetary and Fiscal Policy - The target fiscal deficit rate for 2025 is expected to rise to around 4.0%, with new special bond issuance projected to increase to 6.5 trillion yuan[49] - Monetary policy is shifting to a more accommodative stance, with a potential interest rate cut of 0.5 percentage points in 2025[111] External Trade and Challenges - The impact of "Trade War 2.0" is anticipated to slow down exports, with the share of exports to the U.S. declining from 19% in 2017 to approximately 14.5% in 2024[29] - External demand is expected to contribute less to economic growth in 2025 due to increased trade tensions and geopolitical risks[22] Inflation and Price Levels - Low inflation is projected to persist in 2025, providing room for policy adjustments[50] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to remain low, with the GDP deflator showing negative growth, indicating a need for effective price level management[96]