2024年12月PMI数据点评：制造业平稳收官，非制造业超预期改善

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for December is 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from November, but still above the expansion threshold[1] - The average manufacturing PMI for Q4 is 50.2%, significantly higher than Q3's 49.4%, indicating a shift into the expansion zone[1] - The new orders index rose to 51%, reflecting continued demand growth, while the production index decreased to 52.1%[1] Employment and Business Expectations - The employment index for December fell to 48.1%, indicating a stable job market but below the expansion threshold[1] - Business activity expectations index decreased to 53.3%, yet remains optimistic about future operations[1] Import and Export Trends - New export orders index is at 48.3%, while the import index increased to 49.3%, both remaining below the critical line[1] - The import index has surpassed the new export orders index for the first time since February, indicating a potential shift in trade dynamics[1] Price Indices and Inventory Levels - The purchasing price index dropped to 48.2%, continuing a contraction trend for two months, while the factory price index fell to 46.7%[3] - Finished goods inventory index is at 47.9%, marking 22 consecutive months below the expansion line, suggesting ongoing low inventory levels[3] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 52.2%, exceeding market expectations and indicating robust growth in the sector[16] - The service industry index increased to 52%, with significant growth in sectors like air transport and financial services[16] Policy Outlook - The central economic work conference emphasized the need for proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary easing to support domestic demand in 2024[1] - Continued policy support is expected to bolster the consumer goods sector, with a focus on enhancing consumption and technological innovation[16]