半导体行业策略报告：AI驱动叠加政策提振 行业将迎新成长

Investment Rating - The industry is given a "Neutral" rating, indicating an expected performance relative to the CSI 300 index within a range of -10% to 10% over the next six months [51][68]. Core Insights - Global terminal demand is experiencing a mild recovery, driven by AI, which is expected to initiate a new innovation cycle in smartphones, potentially leading to a replacement wave [2][55]. - The storage market is witnessing structural differentiation, with High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) driving continuous growth in the industry chain [28][29]. - The semiconductor sector is a critical area of technological competition, with policies reinforcing the acceleration of domestic production [74][81]. - The semiconductor industry is projected to remain a market hotspot in 2025, supported by AI and domestic policies aimed at stimulating demand [63]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The semiconductor sector has rebounded due to policy releases that have enhanced market risk appetite [89]. - The valuation of the semiconductor sector has increased, with the overall PE (TTM) reaching 92.65 times as of December 27, 2024, a 36.2% increase from the previous year [4][5]. - Approximately 58% of semiconductor stocks have shown positive growth since the beginning of the year, with notable performers like Cambrian and Lexin Technology [17]. Fundamentals - The semiconductor industry is experiencing steady growth in equipment, with chip design profits leading the increase [32]. - The global semiconductor market is expected to grow by 19% in 2024, with storage and logic chips projected to increase by 81% and 16.9%, respectively [21][29]. - The domestic semiconductor market is benefiting from new applications and a broad IC application market, with a market size growth of 9.3% in 2023 [57]. Outlook - The AI-driven growth and domestic consumption subsidy policies are expected to gradually improve terminal demand [63]. - The semiconductor industry is anticipated to see enhanced activity in mergers and acquisitions, driven by improved cash flow and valuations [49][81]. - The report suggests focusing on advanced packaging and storage leaders that are likely to benefit from domestic substitution and strong performance certainty [63].