摩根大通：2025科技十大预测

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry but indicates a general positive outlook for certain companies within the Hardware & Networking sector, particularly those leveraging AI technologies [16]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that Apple is expected to show resilience in its stock performance throughout 2025, driven by anticipation of the AI cycle and the upcoming iPhone 17 cycle [2]. - Edge AI is projected to remain a core investment theme by the end of 2025, with significant opportunities for application development in consumer devices like smartphones and PCs [2][3]. - AI benefits for enterprises are likely to be measured primarily in terms of cost savings and efficiencies rather than direct revenue increases [3]. - Companies heavily invested in AI may face challenges in investor sentiment during the first half of 2025 until clearer guidance on revenue momentum is provided [4][6]. - A tighter dispersion of share price performance is expected in 2025, as investors seek value in underperforming stocks amid a recovery in demand drivers [7]. - Consolidation in cyclical customer end-markets, such as Telco and Enterprise, is anticipated to enhance recovery and drive cost synergies [8]. - Contract manufacturers are expected to gain favor among investors due to their leverage to AI-led growth and lower associated risks compared to OEMs [9]. - Concerns regarding tariff impacts are expected to diminish as companies have invested in supply chain resilience over the years [10]. - The report notes that the commercialization of autonomous and electric vehicle technologies remains uncertain, with challenges in growth outlook and vehicle model launches [11]. - The debate regarding the favorability of on-premises versus public cloud AI infrastructure for hardware companies is expected to tilt towards on-premises solutions by the end of 2025 [14]. Summary by Sections - Apple's Performance: Anticipated resilience in stock performance due to AI cycle and iPhone 17 [2]. - Edge AI: Expected to be a major investment theme with opportunities in consumer devices [2][3]. - AI Benefits: Focus on cost savings and efficiencies rather than revenue [3]. - Investor Sentiment: Challenges for AI-leveraged companies until clearer guidance is provided [4][6]. - Share Price Performance: Tighter dispersion expected as investors seek value [7]. - Market Consolidation: Anticipated in cyclical customer end-markets to drive recovery [8]. - Contract Manufacturers: Favorable positioning due to AI growth leverage [9]. - Tariff Concerns: Expected to be less impactful than previously feared [10]. - Autonomous and Electric Vehicles: Uncertain commercialization and growth outlook [11]. - AI Infrastructure Debate: Tilt towards on-premises solutions by year-end 2025 [14].