AikoSolar(600732) 申港证券·2025-01-05 03:49Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 13.60 CNY based on a 20x PE for 2025 [4][6]. Core Views - The report indicates that 2024 will be a year of bottoming out for the photovoltaic industry, with a need for breakthroughs as pessimism continues to release [1][55]. - Demand for photovoltaic power generation is expected to continue to be released due to its economic viability [1][62]. - The battery and component segments are anticipated to rebound first, with the company positioned as a leader in BC battery technology [2][3][77]. Summary by Sections 1. Photovoltaic Industry Sentiment - The report highlights a significant decline in prices for polysilicon, silicon materials, and battery cells in the first half of 2024, with stabilization expected in the second half [12][13]. - The photovoltaic battery and component sectors experienced a revenue drop of 24.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024, with a net profit loss of 103.5 billion CNY [23][24]. 2. Policy Constraints and Supply - Recent domestic policies aim to eliminate outdated production capacity and prevent disorderly expansion in supply, which may accelerate the industry's bottoming out and lead to high-quality development [59][60]. 3. Economic Viability of Photovoltaic Power - The cost of photovoltaic power generation (LCOE) has decreased significantly, making it more competitive than fossil fuels, which is expected to stimulate demand [61][62]. - Global photovoltaic installations reached 345.8 GW in 2023, a 74% increase year-on-year, indicating strong industry demand [66][67]. 4. Rebound in Battery and Component Segments - Battery prices have started to rebound, with TOPCon battery prices increasing by 1.9% and 1.1% for different models between October and December 2024 [77]. - The report emphasizes that the cost reductions in industrial silicon and polysilicon will likely enhance profit margins for silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [84].