Homa(002668) 兴业证券·2025-01-05 06:56Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (First Time)" [1] Core Views - The report highlights TCL Smart Home as a leading player in the refrigerator ODM export market, emphasizing its return to core business after TCL's acquisition [2][3] Company Overview - History: The company has a strong focus on refrigerator ODM exports and has undergone two ownership changes, with TCL taking full control [6][14] - Governance: TCL's complete acquisition has positioned the company for strategic growth [14][15] - Financials: The main business of refrigerators is steadily expanding, with continuous improvement in profitability [16] Industry Insights - Global Trends: There is a clear trend of upgrading refrigerators globally, with significant opportunities in overseas markets [27] - Overseas Market: The report notes stable volume growth and price increases, indicating a broad market potential [27] - China Market: The Chinese market shows slight volume decline but stable price growth, suggesting a steady growth trajectory [32] Competitive Advantages - Scale and Strategy: The company benefits from leading scale, a premium product strategy, and platform synergies [34] - Asset Integration: The completion of TCL's asset injection into the refrigerator and washing machine segment, along with ongoing subsidiary share buybacks, is expected to enhance operational efficiency [55] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue Projections: The company is projected to achieve revenues of 151.8 billion in 2023, growing to 222.8 billion by 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 30.1%, 19.8%, 10.8%, and 10.6% respectively [3][64] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): EPS is expected to increase from 0.73 in 2023 to 1.18 by 2026 [64] - Valuation Metrics: The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 18.1 in 2023 to 11.2 by 2026, indicating potential for value appreciation [64]