存储行业专题报告：传统终端需求放缓 HBM成新驱动

Industry Rating - The industry is rated as "Neutral" [3][18] Core Insights - Traditional terminal demand has slowed, leading to a decline in DRAM and NAND prices. In the first half of 2023, storage products experienced continuous price and volume declines due to high inventory and weak demand. However, prices began to recover in September 2023, with the average spot price of general PC DRAM products (DDR4 8Gb 1Gx8) dropping by 20.44% from the July peak by December 31, 2024 [6][8] - HBM demand is rapidly growing driven by AI and HPC. The global storage market saw a year-on-year increase of 96.8% in the first three quarters of 2024, with major storage chip manufacturers forming a monopoly in the HBM market. The average selling price of HBM3e is approximately 3-5 times that of traditional DRAM products [6][13][14] - China is the largest DRAM market globally, with a recent breakthrough in DDR5. In 2023, China's storage market grew by 9.3%, significantly outperforming the global decline of 29.1%. The introduction of domestic DDR5 products marks a significant advancement in the local storage industry [6][15] Summary by Sections 1. Impact of Traditional Terminal Demand on DRAM and NAND Prices - The storage products faced continuous price declines in the first half of 2023 due to high inventory and weak demand. By December 31, 2024, the average spot price of DDR4 8Gb 1Gx8 was $1.46, down 20.44% from the July peak. NAND prices also saw significant fluctuations, with the contract price for 128Gb 16Gx8 MLC dropping by 56% from the August high [6][8][13] 2. Rapid Growth of HBM Demand Driven by AI and HPC - The global storage market is projected to grow by 81% in 2024, primarily driven by AI and HBM demand. The enterprise-level market is performing better than the consumer market, with enterprise SSD prices increasing by approximately 15% in Q3 2024 [6][13][14] 3. China's Position as the Largest DRAM Market and DDR5 Breakthrough - China's storage market is expected to continue growing, with DDR5 penetration potentially exceeding 50% in 2024. The introduction of domestic DDR5 products is anticipated to catalyze rapid growth in demand, supported by improvements in transmission rates and energy efficiency [6][15][17]