2025年通胀形势展望：通胀修复上行 关注政策落地与信心复苏

Inflation Outlook - In 2024, CPI is expected to rise by only 0.3% year-on-year due to weak terminal demand and both food and non-food prices underperforming[7] - PPI is projected to decline by 2.1% year-on-year, marking two consecutive years of negative growth, primarily due to rapid supply recovery and insufficient domestic demand[7] Economic Growth Projections - For 2025, GDP growth is anticipated to stabilize around 5% year-on-year, supported by coordinated policy efforts[7] - CPI is expected to slightly rise, while PPI's rate of decline is projected to narrow, indicating a potential recovery in inflation[50] Consumer and Market Dynamics - The recovery in consumer confidence and service sector performance will be crucial for CPI rebound, with a focus on the impact of pork prices and other food items[51] - The service sector's growth remains below pre-pandemic levels, with only certain segments like information technology showing robust growth[64] Policy Implications - Continued monetary easing and fiscal support are necessary to bolster domestic demand and stabilize inflation rates[7] - The government is expected to enhance policies aimed at stimulating consumption and investment, particularly in infrastructure and real estate sectors[110] Risks and Uncertainties - Potential risks include unexpected central bank interventions, fluctuations in food prices, and geopolitical tensions that could impact economic stability[8] - The global economic environment remains uncertain, with factors such as trade policies and inflationary pressures influencing domestic markets[86]