CGN POWER(003816) 华福证券·2025-01-07 12:46Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for China General Nuclear Power Corporation (003816.SZ) [2][6] Core Views - In 2024, the company's managed nuclear power generation increased by 6.08% year-on-year, with a notable 9.4% growth in Q4 [3][4] - The total power generation for 2024 is approximately 242.18 billion kWh, with total grid-connected power reaching about 227.28 billion kWh, reflecting a 6.13% increase [3][4] - The performance of the Taishan and Fangchenggang units was particularly strong, with Taishan's generation increasing by 52.05% year-on-year [5][6] Summary by Sections Company Dynamics - The company completed 17 major repairs and initiated one annual refueling overhaul in 2024, contributing to the overall increase in power generation [4] - The Fangchenggang unit's generation increased by 18.88% due to additional operational months, while the Lingdong unit saw a decrease of 6.95% due to extended maintenance [5] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report adjusts profit forecasts for 2024-2026, estimating net profits of 10.80 billion, 11.05 billion, and 11.22 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17.6, 17.2, and 16.9 [6][8] - The expected decline in long-term electricity prices in Guangdong in 2025 has been factored into the revised profit estimates [6] Financial Data and Valuation - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 86.52 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5% [8] - The net profit for 2023 was reported at 10.73 billion yuan, reflecting an 8% increase from the previous year [8]