消费电子行业专题报告：创新驱动需求复苏 业绩与估值有望修复

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Neutral" [5][79]. Core Insights - The consumer electronics industry is expected to experience a recovery driven by innovation and supportive policies, with a potential increase in both volume and price across the supply chain [6][78]. - The industry has undergone a continuous destocking process in 2024, with a moderate recovery in terminal demand and improving quarterly performance for listed companies [6][78]. - The introduction of AI technologies is anticipated to catalyze a new wave of innovation, particularly in PCs and smartphones, leading to increased replacement demand [6][78]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - As of December 31, 2024, the consumer electronics sector has seen a cumulative increase of 14.03% since the beginning of the year, lagging behind the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by 0.65 percentage points [9]. - The sub-industries have shown divergence, with components and assembly rising by 16.63%, while brand consumer electronics fell by 3.18% [9]. 2. Fundamentals - In the first three quarters of 2024, the consumer electronics industry achieved revenue of 1,160.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.84%, and a net profit of 47.703 billion yuan, up 16.46% [25]. - The industry is experiencing a gradual improvement in performance, with the third quarter showing a revenue of 458.136 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.42% [26]. 3. Outlook - Global terminal demand is showing signs of moderate recovery, with smartphone sales increasing by 4% year-on-year in Q3 2024, marking the highest growth since 2015 [45]. - AI is expected to drive a new innovation cycle, with significant advancements in chip technology from major players like Apple, enhancing performance and user experience [65][66]. - The Chinese mainland remains a critical part of the global consumer electronics supply chain, benefiting from strong manufacturing capabilities and ongoing policy support [74][75]. 4. Valuation - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the consumer electronics sector is currently at 29.8 times, reflecting a 6% decrease from the end of 2023 and indicating a relative low valuation compared to historical levels [20].