NEWLAND(000997) 广发证券·2025-01-09 02:04Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 17.92 CNY and a fair value of 20.01 CNY [4]. Core Views - The implementation of the national network identity certification service is expected to bring new business opportunities for the company, particularly in the CTID (Citizen Trusted Identity) sector, which could lead to a demand for approximately 210 million terminal devices [10][36]. - The company's payment business is experiencing revitalization through international expansion, with overseas POS machine shipments increasing significantly from 400,000 units in 2018 to 3.5 million units in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 54% [10]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to reach 1.08 CNY in 2024, 1.33 CNY in 2025, and 1.61 CNY in 2026, with a target price based on a 15x PE ratio for 2025 [10]. Financial Forecast - Revenue (in million CNY) is forecasted as follows: - 2022: 7370 - 2023: 8250 - 2024: 8416 - 2025: 9408 - 2026: 10921 - EBITDA (in million CNY) is projected to be: - 2022: 562 - 2023: 1363 - 2024: 1325 - 2025: 1647 - 2026: 2005 - Net profit (in million CNY) is expected to be: - 2022: -382 - 2023: 1004 - 2024: 1110 - 2025: 1377 - 2026: 1667 - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 19.80 in 2023 to 11.10 in 2026 [3][10]. Business Overview - The company operates in two main segments: smart terminal clusters and industry digitalization clusters, focusing on digital payment and intelligent recognition technologies [53][56]. - The company is the only supplier of QR code security chips and one of four suppliers of QR code modules in the CTID ecosystem, indicating a strong position in the market [27][10]. - The company has established a significant presence in the overseas market, with over 85% of its revenue coming from international operations in the first half of 2024 [10]. Market Potential - The CTID terminal device market is estimated to reach a scale of 10 billion CNY from 2025 to 2030, with the company positioned as the sole chip supplier [36]. - The module market for CTID is projected to reach 88 billion CNY over the same period, further enhancing the company's revenue potential [38]. Recent Developments - The company has been actively involved in the development of the CTID platform, which has already been integrated into various government and financial institutions, providing millions of identity verifications [22][23]. - The company has a diversified product matrix, including digital payment terminals and intelligent recognition products, which are crucial for its growth strategy [53][56].