2024年12月物价数据点评：12月食品价格较快下跌拖累CPI同比低位下行，上年同期基数下沉带动PPI同比降幅收窄

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In December 2024, the CPI year-on-year growth rate was 0.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The food CPI turned negative at -0.5% year-on-year, significantly down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to falling prices of vegetables, fruits, and pork[4] - The overall CPI decline was influenced by a high base from the previous year, with non-food prices remaining stable and showing a slight increase compared to the previous month[3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI year-on-year decline was 2.3%, narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, attributed to a lower base effect[1] - December PPI saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, contrasting with a 0.1% increase in the previous month, indicating weakening marginal trends[8] - The decline in coal prices and reduced momentum in steel and non-ferrous metal prices contributed to the overall PPI weakness, with the PPI for durable consumer goods also declining[9] Group 3: Economic Outlook - In January 2025, the CPI is expected to rise to around 1.0% due to concentrated consumer demand ahead of the Spring Festival[2] - The PPI year-on-year decline is projected to narrow to approximately -2.1% in January 2025, supported by a lower base and increased growth policies[10] - The overall economic recovery and stabilization of the real estate market will be crucial for improving consumer confidence and demand in 2025[6]