2024年12月通胀数据点评：通胀低位波动，但回升或可期

Inflation Trends - In December 2024, the CPI year-on-year growth rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 0.1%, consistent with market expectations[2] - The annual CPI for 2024 increased by 0.2%, the same as in 2023, indicating two consecutive years of low inflation volatility[2] - Core CPI year-on-year growth expanded by 0.1 percentage points to 0.4% in December 2024, but remained low[2] Food and Non-Food Prices - December food prices shifted from a 1% increase to a 0.5% decrease, marking the first decline in six months[2] - Non-food prices changed from flat to a 0.2% increase year-on-year in December[2] - The average wholesale price of 28 monitored vegetables and 7 fruits turned from an increase to a decrease in early January 2025[2] Supply and Demand Factors - Weather conditions contributed to increased supply, leading to a significant reduction in fresh vegetable price growth by 9.5 percentage points to 0.5% year-on-year[2] - Pork prices rose by 12.5% year-on-year, but the growth rate decreased by 1.2 percentage points due to ample supply[2] - The average wholesale price of pork saw a reduction in year-on-year growth, while egg prices experienced an increase[2] PPI Insights - The PPI year-on-year decline was 2.3% in December, with a reduction in the decline rate by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month[4] - The annual PPI for 2024 decreased by 2.2%, an improvement from a 3% decline in 2023[4] - Major industries with the highest price increases included non-ferrous metal mining and smelting, with increases of 13.2% and 6.4% respectively[4] Future Outlook - The CPI is expected to rise in January 2025 due to increased demand for food during the winter holidays and the upcoming Spring Festival[5] - The annual CPI growth for 2025 is projected to rebound to 1%-1.5% due to continued expansionary policies[5] - The PPI is anticipated to stabilize in January 2025, with a forecasted annual decline narrowing to around 0.5%[5]