汽车行业周报：2024年乘用车市场各项指标创新高，2025年以旧换新政策发布

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Stronger than Market" rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Views - The 2025 policy on large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods replacement has been released, which is expected to further stimulate the automotive market [6] - The 2024 passenger car market achieved record highs in various indicators, with retail sales reaching 22.894 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [6] - The new energy vehicle (NEV) market saw significant growth, with retail sales of 10.899 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 40.7% [6] - The intelligent vehicle sector is expected to accelerate breakthroughs and development in 2025, with key technologies such as smart cockpits and autonomous driving being highlighted at the 2025 International Consumer Electronics Show [6] Market Performance - The SW automotive sector rose by 1.3% last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 1.1% [6] - The automotive sector's PE (TTM) was 23x as of January 10, up 1% from the previous week [6] Policy Impact - The 2025 policy includes a 300 billion yuan special treasury bond fund allocated to local governments for key support policies, including car replacement and scrapping [6] - The policy expands the scope of scrapped vehicles and improves the subsidy standards for car replacement, which is expected to boost domestic car consumption [6] Key Investment Opportunities - Focus on opportunities arising from the 2025 new car cycle and the continuation of the car replacement policy [6] - Pay attention to the opportunities brought by Robotaxi, Huawei's major cycle, and Xiaomi's new car launches [6] - Monitor the acceleration of intelligent vehicle breakthroughs and the inclusion of National IV trucks in the scrapping subsidy range, which will benefit the heavy truck industry [6] Sector Highlights Passenger Vehicles - In December 2024, passenger vehicle retail sales reached 2.635 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%, with annual retail sales hitting a record high of 22.894 million units [6] - Key companies to watch: BYD (002594), Geely Auto (0175.HK), SAIC Motor (600104), Changan Auto (000625), GAC Group (601238) [6] New Energy Vehicles - NEV retail sales in December 2024 were 1.302 million units, a year-on-year increase of 37.5%, with annual retail sales reaching 10.899 million units [6] - Key companies to watch: BYD (002594), Geely Auto (0175.HK), Huayu Automotive (600741), Xinquan Automotive (603179), Duoli Technology (001311) [6] Intelligent Vehicles - The 2025 International Consumer Electronics Show highlighted smart cockpits and autonomous driving technologies, with Chinese automakers like Great Wall Motors, XPeng, and Zeekr showcasing their latest innovations [6] - Key companies to watch: Huawei-related companies (e.g., Seres (601127), BAIC BluePark (600733)), Tesla-related companies (e.g., Top Group (601689)), and Xiaomi-related companies (e.g., Desay SV (002920)) [6] Heavy Trucks - In December 2024, heavy truck wholesale sales were approximately 81,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 55%, driven by the "scrap and replace" policy and export growth [6] - Key companies to watch: Weichai Power (2338.HK/000338), China National Heavy Duty Truck (3808.HK/000951), Tianrun Industrial (002283) [6] Market Trends - Raw material prices showed mixed trends last week, with steel prices down 1.9%, copper prices up 3%, and aluminum prices up 0.7% [21] - The price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) was 4,413.8 yuan/ton as of December 31, 2024, down 24.0% year-on-year but up 0.4% month-on-month [21]