美国12月非农就业点评，就业强于预期，但降息窗口未关

Employment Data - US December non-farm payrolls added 252,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the expected 160,000 and the revised November figure of 212,000[2] - Unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, below the expected and previous rate of 4.2%[2] - Average hourly earnings growth slowed to 3.9% year-over-year, below the expected 4.0%[2] Labor Market Trends - Service sector contributed 231,000 jobs, with retail and leisure/hospitality adding 43,000 each, driven by the holiday season[2] - Manufacturing employment declined due to strikes, while job vacancies unexpectedly rose to 8.1 million, indicating strong labor demand[2] - Labor force participation rate remained steady at 62.5%, with household survey data showing a recovery in employment[2] Market Reactions - Probability of a January rate cut dropped to 3.3% from 6.6%, and March rate cut probability fell to 23.9% from 39.6%[5] - US 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.79%, and the dollar index rose to 109.6, while major US stock indices declined[5] Future Outlook - Short-term labor market volatility is expected due to strikes and potential downward revisions in non-farm payroll data[5] - Fed officials remain divided on rate cuts, with some supporting further easing in 2024 amid cooling inflation and tightening financial conditions[5]