2024年12月贸易数据解读：年底出口增速冲高，进口恢复正增长

Export Performance - In December 2024, export value increased by 10.7% year-on-year, a significant rise of 4 percentage points from November's 6.7% growth[2] - December exports to the US surged by 15.6%, accelerating by 7.6 percentage points compared to the previous month[4] - The overall export growth for 2024 reached a historical high with a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, up from a decline of 4.7% in 2023[4] Import Performance - December 2024 saw a 1.0% year-on-year increase in import value, rebounding from a 3.9% decline in November[2] - The annual import growth for 2024 was 1.1%, an increase of 6.6 percentage points compared to the previous year[11] - Despite the positive December performance, the import growth remains low, primarily due to insufficient domestic demand[8] Market Trends and Outlook - The global trade growth rate is expected to rise from 3.1% in 2024 to 3.4% in 2025, indicating a continued recovery in external demand[6] - The electronics sector, particularly integrated circuits, is projected to drive export growth, with export volume and value increasing by 11.6% and 17.4% respectively in 2024[5] - The forecast for early 2025 suggests a potential slowdown in export growth to around 1.0% due to high base effects from the previous year[6]