宏观周报（1月第2周）：美联储降息预期继续收缩

Macroeconomic Overview - The market experienced a decline with a weekly average transaction volume of 1,142.1 billion CNY, down 192.6 billion CNY from the previous week[10] - December CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, matching expectations, while PPI decreased by 2.3%, also in line with forecasts[11] - Core CPI showed a slight upward trend for three consecutive months, indicating marginally positive signals despite ongoing food price pressures[12] Policy and Market Reactions - The central bank announced a pause in government bond purchases, leading to delayed expectations for monetary easing due to recent RMB depreciation[10] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for December exceeded expectations, with an increase of 256,000 jobs, leading to a reduction in the anticipated timeline for Fed rate cuts[18] - Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have shifted to after June 2025, with the total number of cuts for the year reduced to less than two[19] Investment and Economic Indicators - The fiscal policy for 2025 includes subsidies for digital products, with limits set on individual item prices and subsidy amounts, which did not exceed market expectations overall[10] - The bond market saw rising yields, particularly in the short end, influenced by regulatory concerns and the central bank's actions[10] - Key upcoming data to watch includes China's December financial data, trade figures, and Q4 GDP, which are critical for assessing economic recovery[21]