宏观和大类资产配置周报：2025年的第一个预期：美联储1月可能不降息

Macro Economic Overview - The first expectation for January 2025 is that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates[1] - The macroeconomic outlook indicates significant uncertainty in the economic prospects of Europe and the US over the next year[3] Asset Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.13%, and the CSI 300 Index futures dropped by 0.99% this week[1] - Coking coal futures decreased by 5.34%, while iron ore main contracts fell by 1.89%[1] - The yield on ten-year government bonds rose by 3 basis points to 1.63%[1] Investment Strategy - Recommended asset allocation order: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Currency[1] - Stocks are currently overweight due to the focus on the implementation of incremental policies[3] - Bonds are underweight as the "stock-bond seesaw" may impact the bond market in the short term[3] Economic Indicators - In December 2024, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.3%[4] - The US non-farm payrolls increased by 256,000 in December 2024, significantly exceeding the expected 160,000[5] Currency and Interest Rates - The seven-day annualized yield of Yu'ebao fell by 5 basis points to 1.22%[1] - The US dollar index rose by 0.68% to 109.66, reflecting a strong dollar trend[5] Risk Factors - Potential risks include a second wave of global inflation and a rapid decline in the European and American economies[5]