TRIP.COM(09961) 辉立证券·2025-01-14 03:14Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Trip.com Group with a target price of HKD 597.7, representing a 7.60% upside from the current price of HKD 555.5 [4][13] Core Views - Trip.com Group's 3Q24 performance exceeded expectations, driven by strong growth in domestic and outbound travel demand [2] - The company's international OTA platform Trip.com saw hotel and flight bookings grow over 60% YoY, with outbound travel recovering to 120% of 2019 levels [2] - Trip.com Group is well-positioned to benefit from the recovery of outbound travel, supported by increasing flight capacity and visa facilitation [10] - The company's domestic travel business is expected to grow further due to the resilience of travel demand and increasing online penetration [3] - Trip.com's international business is in a rapid growth phase, with significant potential for expansion and synergies between domestic and international operations [13] Business Performance - In 3Q24, Trip.com Group achieved total revenue of RMB 15.9 billion, up 15.5% YoY, with adjusted EBITDA of RMB 5.7 billion, up 23.9% YoY, and Non-GAAP net profit of RMB 6.0 billion, up 21.8% YoY [2] - Segment revenue breakdown: Accommodation booking revenue grew 21.7% YoY to RMB 6.8 billion, transportation ticketing revenue increased 5.3% YoY to RMB 5.7 billion, package tour revenue rose 17.3% YoY to RMB 1.6 billion, and corporate travel management revenue grew 11.0% YoY to RMB 0.7 billion [2] - Trip.com's international OTA platform contributed approximately 9% of total revenue, with Asia-Pacific market revenue growing over 70% YoY [11] Industry Trends - Domestic travel in China has shown strong recovery, with 2023 domestic trips reaching 4.9 billion, recovering to 81.4% of 2019 levels, and total spending recovering to 85.7% of 2019 levels [3] - Online travel booking users in China reached 500 million by December 2023, accounting for 46.6% of total internet users, indicating significant growth potential for online travel platforms [3] - Outbound travel is expected to reach 130 million trips in 2024, recovering to 84% of 2019 levels, driven by increasing flight capacity and visa facilitation [10] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow to RMB 55.3 billion in FY24E and RMB 62.9 billion in FY25E, with Non-GAAP net profit expected to reach RMB 17.1 billion in FY24E and RMB 18.9 billion in FY25E [7][13] - EPS is forecasted to be RMB 25.02 in FY24E and RMB 27.79 in FY25E, with P/E ratios of 20.6x and 18.6x respectively [7][13] - The company's ROE is expected to improve to 11.31% in FY24E and 11.23% in FY25E, reflecting strong profitability and efficient capital utilization [16]