BABA(BABA)2025-01-14 03:16Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba (BABA) is maintained as "Buy" [2][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights a rebound in GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) and CMR (Customer Management Revenue) growth, alongside the divestment of non-core assets to focus on core businesses [9][12]. - Alibaba's strategic focus is on enhancing user experience and fostering growth in its core e-commerce and cloud operations, with significant investments in overseas expansion and AI commercialization [14]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - For FY3Q25, the forecasted revenue is RMB 275 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, with an adjusted EBITA of RMB 51.3 billion, a decline of 3% year-on-year, and an adjusted EBITA margin of 19% [9][10]. - The expected Non-GAAP net profit for FY3Q25 is RMB 46.6 billion, also down 3% year-on-year [9]. - Revenue growth projections by business segment include: Taotian (+1.7%), International Business Digital Commerce Group (+25.8%), Local Life Group (+13.0%), Cainiao Group (+10.0%), Cloud Intelligence Group (+9.4%), Great Entertainment Group (+5.0%), and other businesses (+3.0%) [9][11]. Strategic Developments - Alibaba is divesting non-core assets, including the sale of its 99% stake in Intime Retail for approximately RMB 7.4 billion, and the sale of a 78.70% stake in Sun Art Retail for up to HK 1.3 billion, resulting in a net reduction of 0.6% in outstanding shares [12][13]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The report anticipates continued growth in international operations, particularly in the Middle East, Europe, Japan, and South Korea, with a focus on major promotional events [11]. - The cloud business is expected to achieve double-digit growth, driven by AI and public cloud strategies, with stable profitability anticipated [11].