建筑行业2025年投资策略：把握价值，深耕三条主线

Industry Overview - The construction sector underperformed the broader market in 2024, with the Shenwan Construction Decoration Index rising by 5.6%, lagging behind the CSI 300 Index by 9.1 percentage points [4] - The housing construction sub-sector saw a 19.1% increase, while infrastructure rose by 7.9% [4] - The construction industry's PE ratio stood at 9.8x, ranking among the lowest in the Shenwan industry classification [4] Policy and Macro Environment - Incremental policy signals are clear, with fiscal policy expected to expand aggressively in 2025 to stabilize growth [4] - Infrastructure investment is projected to increase, with real estate investment declines expected to narrow, driving a recovery in physical demand [4] - A 12 trillion yuan debt resolution fund has been allocated to address local hidden debts and triangular debt issues [4] State-Owned Enterprise Reforms - State-owned enterprise reforms focus on four areas: strengthening incentives, industry consolidation, new energy investments, and low-carbon business development [4] - These reforms are expected to improve cash flow, reduce leverage, and lower financial costs for construction SOEs [4] Belt and Road Initiative - The Belt and Road Initiative is entering a high-quality development phase, with potential policy support amid US-China tensions [4] - Overseas engineering demand is expected to remain strong, with China's overseas engineering contracts growing by 11.8% YoY in USD terms from January to November 2024 [4] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on low-valuation, high-dividend state-owned enterprises, particularly those involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [4] - Key recommended stocks include China State Construction Engineering Corporation (601668) [4] Sector Performance - The construction sector's valuation remains historically low, with a PE ratio of 9.8x, close to the 2014 low of 9.1x [16][19] - The sector's PB ratio is 0.8x, among the lowest in the Shenwan industry classification, only higher than banking and real estate [21] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment grew by 9.4% YoY from January to November 2024, driven by policy support and funding availability [26][40] - Key areas of growth include water conservancy and railway transportation [26] Real Estate Investment - Real estate investment declined by 10.6% YoY from January to November 2024, with weak improvement expected in the near term [30] - Policy measures, including tax incentives and urban village renovations, aim to stabilize the real estate sector [35] Corporate Performance - The top eight construction SOEs reported a 3.9% YoY decline in revenue and a 9.8% decline in net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 [54] - China State Construction Engineering Corporation (601668) saw a 4.6% YoY increase in new contracts from January to November 2024 [64] Overseas Orders - Overseas orders for construction SOEs grew significantly, with China State Construction Engineering Corporation (601668) reporting a 60.4% YoY increase in overseas contracts from January to November 2024 [80] - China Metallurgical Group Corporation (MCC) saw a 99% YoY increase in overseas contracts during the same period [80] Debt Resolution and Fiscal Leverage - Local governments have issued approximately 2 trillion yuan in special refinancing bonds to address hidden debts, with Jiangsu, Hunan, and Shandong leading in issuance [85] - The debt resolution is expected to improve the financial health of construction companies and support valuation recovery [92]