Trade Performance - China's total goods trade in 2024 increased by 3.8% year-on-year, with exports up 5.9% and imports up 1.1%, resulting in a trade surplus of 170.06 billion compared to 2023[2] - In December 2024, exports surged by 10.7% year-on-year, while imports turned positive with a 1% increase, leading to a monthly trade surplus of $104.84 billion[2] - The "rush to export" effect was evident, driven by delayed Black Friday shopping in the US and concerns over potential tariff hikes under a Trump administration[2] Regional Trade Dynamics - Trade with ASEAN, Latin America, and South Korea grew significantly, with year-on-year increases of 7.8%, 6%, and 5.6% respectively[2] - Exports to Brazil, Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Thailand saw double-digit growth, while exports to South Africa, the Netherlands, and Australia declined[2] - China's trade with RCEP partner countries accounted for 30.02% of total trade, up 0.11 percentage points from the previous month[2] Commodity-Specific Trends - Exports of machinery and electrical products, including automobiles, grew strongly, with car exports up 12.1% year-on-year in December[4] - Exports of upstream raw materials like rare earths and grains declined, with rare earth exports down 11.8% and grain exports down 47.6% in December[4] - Imports of key agricultural products like grains, soybeans, and edible oils fell sharply, with grain imports down 45.7% year-on-year in December[5] Global Economic Context - Global manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5% in December, still in contraction but showing resilience, with South Korea's exports up 6.6% year-on-year[2] - US bond yield increases may suppress the US economy, and trade uncertainties with China under a potential Trump administration could impact export growth in the medium term[2]
2024年12月贸易数据点评：贸易顺差继续扩大，“抢出口”效应正显现
西南证券·2025-01-14 11:38