电池行业月报：2024年中国电池装车量同比增42%；新一轮国补有望带动装车量增长

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the battery industry, driven by strong growth in new energy vehicle (NEV) sales and battery installations [1][3] Core Views - In 2024, China's NEV sales reached 10.899 million units, a 40.7% YoY increase, with a penetration rate of 49.4%, up 9.1 percentage points YoY [3] - China's power battery installations in 2024 totaled 548.4 GWh, a 41.5% YoY increase, with lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries accounting for 74.6% of total installations, up 7 percentage points YoY [3] - Battery production and sales in 2024 were 1096.8 GWh and 1039.5 GWh respectively, with a production-to-sales ratio of 1.06, similar to 2023 levels [3] - Battery exports in 2024 reached 197.1 GWh, a 29.2% YoY increase, with energy storage battery exports growing 151.6% YoY, accounting for 32.2% of total exports [3] - Tesla's Shanghai energy storage super factory is expected to start production in Q1 2025, with an annual capacity of 10,000 Megapack units, totaling nearly 40 GWh [3] - The report forecasts NEV penetration to reach 60% in 2025, driven by new consumer subsidy policies, further boosting power battery installations [3] - Energy storage battery sales are expected to maintain strong growth in 2025, supported by China's energy storage policies and US grid upgrades [3] - Solid-state battery industrialization is accelerating, with potential benefits for related materials such as solid electrolytes, anodes, cathodes, and aluminum-plastic films [3] Company Analysis - CATL (300750 CH) is rated as a Buy with a target price of CNY 310.10, representing a 25.6% upside potential [2][18] - EVE Energy (300014 CH) is rated as a Buy with a target price of CNY 56.51, representing a 31.3% upside potential [2][18] - Gotion High-tech (002074 CH) is rated as a Buy with a target price of CNY 29.07, representing a 42.8% upside potential [2][18] - CALB (3931 HK) is rated as a Buy with a target price of HKD 15.59, representing a 26.9% upside potential [2][18] - REPT Battero (666 HK) is rated as Neutral with a target price of HKD 14.25, representing a 40.6% upside potential [2][18] Market Share and Rankings - In December 2024, CATL led the market with a 45.5% share of power battery installations, followed by BYD at 23.2% and CALB at 5.6% [16] - For the full year 2024, CATL maintained its leading position with a 45.1% market share, followed by BYD at 24.7% and CALB at 6.7% [17] - The top 3 companies (CR3) accounted for 74.2% of the market in December 2024, while the top 10 companies (CR10) accounted for 95.2% [17][18] Industry Trends - The report highlights the strong growth of LFP batteries, which have become the dominant technology in China's power battery market [3] - Energy storage battery exports are growing rapidly, driven by strong demand from international markets [3] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards solid-state batteries, with several companies planning mass production, which could drive material innovation [3]