2024年12月金融数据点评：年底隐债置换加速，在压低新增信贷的同时推高新增社融

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In December 2024, new RMB loans amounted to 990 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 180 billion[1] - The new social financing scale in December reached 28,575 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9,249 billion[1] - By the end of December, M2 grew by 7.3% year-on-year, with an acceleration of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month[1] Group 2: Loan and Financing Trends - December saw a continued decline in new RMB loans, particularly in medium to long-term corporate loans, which only reached 40 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8,212 billion[2] - Residential medium to long-term loans increased by 1,538 billion year-on-year, marking the third consecutive month of growth[2] - Total new RMB loans for 2024 were 18.09 trillion, a significant decrease of 4.66 trillion compared to 2023[7] Group 3: Social Financing Insights - December's new social financing of 2.86 trillion marked the first year-on-year increase in four months, driven mainly by bond financing, particularly government bonds which increased by 8,288 billion year-on-year[8] - For the entire year of 2024, total social financing was 32.26 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.33 trillion, primarily due to a 5.17 trillion drop in loans to the real economy[10] Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - In 2025, the central bank is expected to adopt a moderately loose monetary policy, with new loans and social financing likely to see year-on-year increases[3] - The central bank may implement 2-3 rate cuts totaling 50 basis points in 2025, which is higher than the 30 basis points cut in 2024[16] - The central bank's reserve requirement ratio is currently at 6.6%, with potential for a 1.6 percentage point reduction in 2025[16]