美国12月CPI点评：通胀放缓但上行风险犹存

Inflation Data and Market Impact - US December 2024 CPI increased by 2.9% YoY, matching expectations, with a MoM increase of 0.4%, slightly above the expected 0.3%[2] - Core CPI rose by 3.2% YoY, slightly below the expected 3.3%, with a MoM increase of 0.2%, in line with expectations[2] - Energy prices surged by 2.6% MoM, contributing nearly 40% to the overall CPI increase, with gasoline prices rising by 4.4%[3] Housing and Supercore Inflation - Housing inflation showed a mixed trend, with rents and owner-equivalent rents rising again in December after a November dip, indicating limited room for further decline[3] - Supercore inflation (excluding housing) cooled, driven by a decline in medical services prices, but ISM services PMI suggests potential upward pressure in the coming months[3] Fed Policy and Economic Outlook - The Fed is expected to skip a rate cut in January, with market expectations shifting to a potential rate cut in June 2025, down from September, with 1-2 cuts anticipated for the year[2] - Strong labor data and slowing inflation support the Fed's cautious approach, with potential for rate cuts in the first half of 2025 to address tightening financial conditions[4][5] Commodity and Service Price Trends - Used car prices, after a brief decline, are expected to rise again in the next 2-3 months, potentially driving up goods prices, influenced by factors like the Los Angeles fire[3] - Transportation services prices increased due to seasonal factors like holiday travel, while auto insurance prices are expected to decline due to narrowing cost-premium gaps[3]