CSN(600029) -·2025-01-17 02:53Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Southern Airlines A is neutral with a target price of Rmb6.12 [5][6][24]. Core Insights - The report indicates that business travel demand will be key for 2025, while domestic passenger revenue is expected to be weak in 2024 due to consumer downgrade and increased competition from high-speed rail [2][3]. - The company anticipates a strong travel demand during the Spring Festival in 2025, but a rapid decline in demand is expected towards the end of the travel season [3]. - The airline's international flight capacity is projected to recover to 90-100% of 2019 levels by 2025, although profitability remains challenging outside of routes to Japan and South Korea [4]. - The aircraft utilization rate is expected to reach historical highs, increasing from 9.62 hours per day in 2024 to over 10 hours per day in 2025 [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to increase from Rmb159.398 billion in 2023 to Rmb184.396 billion in 2024, with further growth to Rmb199.190 billion in 2025 [8]. - The company expects to achieve a net profit of Rmb3.727 million in 2024, increasing to Rmb6.782 million in 2025 [8]. Market Position - As of the end of 2022, China Southern Airlines is the largest airline in China by fleet size, operating 894 aircraft [10]. - The airline's market capitalization is approximately Rmb115 billion (US$15.7 billion) [6]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a price-to-earnings (PE) target price of Rmb6.12, with the current stock price at Rmb6.36 [5][6]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 75.945 million shares, with a market price fluctuation range of Rmb7.27 to Rmb5.26 over the past year [6][8].