2024年四季度宏观数据点评：四季度GDP增速超预期，“一揽子增量政策”有效带动经济增长动能回升

Economic Growth - In Q4 2024, GDP growth reached 5.4%, up from 4.6% in Q3, exceeding market expectations[1] - The annual GDP growth for 2024 was 5.0%, slightly down from 5.2% in the previous year[1] - Industrial added value in December grew by 6.2%, compared to 5.4% in November, with an annual cumulative growth of 5.8%[1] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment for the entire year increased by 3.2%, slightly down from 3.3% in the previous year[1] - Retail sales of consumer goods in December grew by 3.7%, up from 3.0% in November, with an annual cumulative growth of 3.5%, significantly lower than the previous year's 7.2%[1] - The real estate sector saw a decline in investment, with a 10.6% drop for the year, indicating ongoing market adjustments[21] Policy Impact - A series of incremental policies effectively boosted economic growth, particularly in Q4, leading to a significant rebound in market confidence[2] - The service sector's production growth improved to 5.8%, a 1 percentage point increase from the previous quarter, driven by enhanced market confidence and consumption policies[2] - The government aims to maintain a GDP growth target of around 5.0% for 2025, with challenges expected from external economic conditions[6] Future Outlook - For 2025, GDP growth is projected to be around 4.7%, supported by counter-cyclical adjustments and the resilience of export enterprises amid trade tensions[6] - Industrial production growth is expected to slow to approximately 4.4% in 2025 due to increased external pressures, although domestic demand may provide some support[11] - Consumer spending is anticipated to recover to a growth rate of about 5.5% in 2025, driven by enhanced consumption policies and support measures[14]