Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 66 0, implying a potential upside of 23 8% from the current price of HKD 53 3 [1][4] Core Views - The company's management has raised the 2024 full-year performance guidance, expecting revenue growth of around 50% and net profit growth of around 40% [1] - The company's main brand, Kefumei, achieved a GMV growth of 78 1% in 2024, driven by strong performance during the "Double 11" shopping festival and new product launches [1] - The company has raised its 2024 performance guidance three times, reflecting strong confidence in achieving its targets [2] - The company is expected to maintain high growth in 2025, driven by the expansion of key products and improved brand strength of its two major brands, Kefumei and Kelijing [2] - The company's medical aesthetic products are expected to be approved as scheduled, with the injection recombinant collagen product for eye wrinkles expected to be approved in Q1 2025 [3] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Revenue for 2024E is expected to reach RMB 5,377 million, a 52 6% YoY increase, with net profit expected to reach RMB 2,044 million, a 40 8% YoY increase [9] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 82 3% in 2024E, with an operating margin of 42 4% [10] - The company's ROE is expected to be 34 7% in 2024E, gradually declining to 32 4% by 2026E [9] - The company's PE ratio is expected to decrease from 24 6x in 2024E to 15 0x in 2026E, reflecting strong earnings growth [9] Product and Brand Performance - Kefumei's GMV grew by 78 1% in 2024, with a growth rate of over 80% during the "Double 11" period [1] - Kelijing's GMV grew by over 150% during the "Double 11" period, driven by core products such as the Pong Pong Essence and Collagen Series [1] - The new product, Focus Cream, launched in 2024, has contributed to Kefumei's growth, providing a new growth driver beyond the Collagen Stick [1] Market and Industry Context - The company's stock price has shown strong performance, with a 52-week range of HKD 28 5 to HKD 58 0, and a current market capitalization of HKD 54,804 million [4] - The company's daily average trading volume over the past three months was HKD 164 2 million, indicating strong market interest [4] - The company is part of the cosmetics industry, with peers such as Proya and Shanghai Jahwa also showing strong performance [15]
巨子生物：浦银国际研究