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361度:第四季度流水增长稳健,童装与电商增长环比提速

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][3] Core Views - The company reported a robust performance in Q4 2024, with the main brand's offline retail sales growing approximately 10%, children's clothing sales increasing by 10-15%, and e-commerce sales rising by 30-35% [2][3] - The growth in children's clothing and e-commerce has accelerated compared to the previous quarter, indicating a positive trend in consumer demand [3][4] - The company continues to launch competitive new products, including winter down jackets and various running shoes, enhancing consumer experience [5][6] - The financial outlook has been slightly adjusted downward for 2025-2026 due to macroeconomic uncertainties, with projected net profits of 1.14 billion, 1.30 billion, and 1.46 billion yuan for 2024-2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 18.1%, 14.3%, and 12.4% respectively [3][7] Summary by Sections Retail Performance - In Q4 2024, the adult apparel offline sales grew by about 10%, children's apparel by 10-15%, and e-commerce by 30-35%, with both children's and e-commerce sales accelerating compared to Q3 [3][4] Product Development - The company has introduced multiple new products, including the "ULTRA series" down jackets and various running shoes, which have been well-received in the market [5][6] Financial Forecast - The company expects net profits to be 1.14 billion, 1.30 billion, and 1.46 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 18.1%, 14.3%, and 12.4% [3][7] - The target price remains at 4.5-5.1 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 7-8x for 2025 [3][7]