宏观经济数据点评：四季度经济增速超预期加快，12月实体经济数据再显政策成效

Economic Growth - China's Q4 economic growth rebounded significantly, increasing by 0.8 percentage points to 5.4%, surpassing the market expectation of 5.0%[2] - The annual economic growth rate reached 5.0%, meeting the target set at the beginning of the year[2] - The service sector's growth accelerated to 5.8% in Q4 from 4.8% in Q3, becoming the main driver of economic recovery[2] Consumption and Investment - In December, retail sales growth improved to 3.7%, up from 3.0% in November, exceeding the market expectation of 3.6%[3] - Fixed asset investment growth declined by 0.1 percentage points to 3.2% in December, slightly below the market expectation of 3.3%[7] - The cumulative growth rate of social retail sales for the year fell sharply from 7.2% in 2023 to 3.5% in 2024, slightly below the forecast of 3.6%[6] Industrial Production and Exports - Industrial production growth in December surged to 6.2%, significantly higher than the expected 5.4%, driven by a manufacturing production increase to 7.4%[7] - Strong export performance contributed to the economic rebound, although concerns about the U.S.-China trade war may have led to preemptive export activities[8] Policy Implications - The better-than-expected economic growth in Q4 may reduce the likelihood of significant policy support before the March meetings, with a focus on implementing existing policies[9] - Continued policy support is anticipated to maintain economic recovery momentum, particularly in consumption and investment sectors[11]