多邻国：小红书直接受益股，中文热潮推动用户猛增

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Duolingo (DUOL US) with a target price of USD 400, implying a potential upside of 17% from the current price of USD 341 8 [2][8] Core View - Duolingo is benefiting from a surge in Chinese language learning in the US, driven by the "TikTok Refugee" phenomenon, with Mandarin learners increasing by 216% YoY from December 1, 2024, to January 13, 2025 [1] - The company's innovative gamified language learning model has significantly lowered user barriers, covering over 40 languages and targeting a global market of over 2 billion foreign language learners with a current penetration rate of less than 6% [8] - Duolingo is expected to achieve 1 76 billion MAUs by 2026, with a CAGR of 30%, and paid subscribers are projected to reach 15 6 million by 2026, growing at a CAGR of 33% [8] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Revenue is forecasted to grow from USD 369 million in FY22 to USD 1,218 million in FY26E, with a CAGR of 34 7% [2][9] - Operating profit is expected to turn positive in FY24E at USD 66 million, increasing to USD 196 million by FY26E [2][9] - Net income is projected to rise from USD 16 million in FY22 to USD 390 million in FY26E, with a significant improvement in profitability [2][9] - Adjusted EBITDA is forecasted to grow from USD 16 million in FY22 to USD 390 million in FY26E, with an EBITDA margin of 24 4% in 4Q24 [8][9] User Metrics and Growth - MAUs are expected to reach 115 million in 4Q24, a 30% YoY increase, with DAUs nearing 40 million [8] - Paid subscription users stood at 8 6 million in 3Q24, with a paid rate of 7 6%, and are expected to grow to 15 6 million by 2026 [8] Valuation Metrics - The target EV/EBITDA multiples are 88 3x for FY24E, 60 0x for FY25E, and 42 9x for FY26E [2][9] - The target P/E multiples are 68x for FY25E and 52x for FY26E [8] Market Context - Duolingo's stock price has shown strong performance, with a 52-week range of USD 145 05 to USD 378 48, and a current market cap of USD 15,034 million [2] - The company's stock has outperformed the S&P 500 index significantly over the past year [6]