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汽车行业：2024年中国汽车出口同比增19%，谨慎看待对俄出口增速
交银国际证券·2025-01-17 14:13

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall industry investment rating for the automotive sector [2][3] Core Views - In 2024, China's automobile exports reached 5 859 million units, a year-on-year increase of 19 3% [2] - Passenger vehicle exports were 4 955 million units, up 19 7% year-on-year [2] - Commercial vehicle exports were 904 thousand units, up 17 5% year-on-year [2] - New energy vehicle (NEV) exports slowed to 1 284 million units, up 6 7% year-on-year, lagging behind traditional fuel vehicle exports which grew 23 5% to 4 574 million units [2] - Plug-in hybrid (PHEV) exports surged 193 7% to 297 thousand units, driving NEV exports [2] - Top 10 automakers accounted for 86% of total exports, with Chery, SAIC, and Changan leading at 20%, 16%, and 9% respectively [2] - Russia's auto market recovered to near 2021 levels, with 1 43 million units sold in Jan-Nov 2024, up 54% year-on-year [2] - China exported 1 06 million vehicles to Russia in Jan-Nov 2024, up 26% year-on-year [2] - Chinese brands now hold nearly 60% market share in Russia [2] Investment Implications - China's automobile exports are expected to maintain strong growth in 2025, driven by competitive pricing of domestic fuel vehicles and expanding market share in South America, Middle East, and Africa [2] - NEV exports face uncertainty due to external factors like EU tariffs [2] - Localized production is becoming a key strategy for Chinese automakers entering European markets [2] - BYD's Hungary factory is expected to start production in 2025 [2] Covered Companies - The report covers multiple companies with buy ratings [9] - Battery sector: CALB (3931 HK), CATL (300750 CH), EVE Energy (300014 CH), Guoxuan High-Tech (002074 CH) [9] - EV makers: BYD (1211 HK), Great Wall Motors (2333 HK), XPeng (9868 HK), Li Auto (2015 HK), NIO (9866 HK) [9] - Commercial vehicles: Sinotruk (3808 HK), Weichai Power (2338 HK) [9] - Two-wheel EVs: Ninebot (689009 CH), Yadea (1585 HK), Luyuan (2451 HK) [9] Charts and Data - Chart 1 shows China's total vehicle exports from 2015-2024, reaching 5 86 million units in 2024 with 19% year-on-year growth [4][5] - Chart 2 illustrates NEV exports, reaching 1 28 million units in 2024 with 6 7% year-on-year growth [6][7]