HANGYANG LIMITED(002430) 浙商证券·2025-01-17 14:23Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating [3][5] Core Views - Acquisition of Hangzhou New Century Mixed Gas: The company plans to acquire 51% of Hangzhou New Century Mixed Gas Co Ltd for RMB 134 million, aiming to extend its standard gas business layout and enhance comprehensive competitiveness [1] - Hangzhou New Century: With decades of experience in the standard gas field, the company achieved revenue of RMB 56.34 million and net profit of RMB 6.21 million in 2023, and revenue of RMB 27.32 million and net profit of RMB 836,000 in the first half of 2024 [1] - Performance Commitment: Hangzhou New Century is expected to achieve a total net profit of no less than RMB 67.88 million from July 2024 to June 2027, with an annual average of RMB 22.63 million, accounting for 2% of Hangyang's 2023 net profit [1] Industry Demand and Market Share - Industrial gas market demand: The total demand for industrial gas is nearly RMB 200 billion, with the third-party outsourcing market growing rapidly, expected to increase from 41% in 2021 to 45% by 2025 [2] - Market share growth: Under the trend of domestic substitution, the company's market share in the third-party gas supply market was 9% in 2021, with an incremental share of 45%, and is expected to reach 30-40% in the future [2] - Product structure upgrade: The proportion of gas business revenue continues to increase, with higher growth and profitability compared to equipment business, and the retail gas business, especially electronic special gases, is expected to further enhance profitability [2] Financial Forecasts - Net profit forecast: Expected net profits for 2024-2026 are RMB 980 million, RMB 1.31 billion, and RMB 1.59 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of -19%, 34%, and 21%, respectively [3] - PE ratios: Corresponding PE ratios are 20x, 15x, and 12x for 2024-2026 [3] - Revenue growth: Expected revenue growth rates for 2024-2026 are 5%, 19%, and 15%, respectively [5] Company Growth Path - Demand growth + market share increase + profitability improvement: The company's long-term profit potential is expected to be several times higher, driven by industry demand growth, increased market share, and improved profitability [2] - Gas business expansion: The company's gas business revenue is expected to account for over 75% by 2025, with a compound growth rate of 23% from 2022 to 2025 [10] Financial Summary - Revenue and profit: 2023 revenue was RMB 13.31 billion, with a net profit of RMB 1.22 billion, and expected revenues for 2024-2026 are RMB 13.92 billion, RMB 16.55 billion, and RMB 19.01 billion, respectively [5] - ROE: Expected ROE for 2024-2026 are 10%, 12%, and 14%, respectively [5]