NTES(09999) 光大证券·2025-01-19 09:09Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 180.0, while the current price is HKD 153.8 [4]. Core Insights - The performance of new games such as "Marvel Showdown" and the recovery of "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" are expected to drive the company's stock price higher. "Marvel Showdown" has shown strong user engagement and sales, with an estimated first-month revenue of RMB 400 million on Steam and a global first-month total revenue expected to reach RMB 1 billion [1][2]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, increasing the expected net profit to RMB 317.9 billion, RMB 355.0 billion, and RMB 383.0 billion respectively, reflecting a growth of 1.6%, 6.1%, and 7.9% compared to previous estimates [2]. Summary by Sections Game Performance - "Marvel Showdown" has achieved significant online player engagement, reaching 450,000 concurrent users on Steam and ranking high on various sales charts across platforms [1][7]. - "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" has successfully launched on mobile, topping the iPhone role-playing game download charts and surpassing 10 million players within five days of its release [1]. - "Infinite" has received positive feedback from its closed beta testing, showcasing a variety of gameplay features and potential for expansion in the two-dimensional game market [1]. Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from RMB 96.5 billion in 2023 to RMB 125.0 billion by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 7.2% [3][11]. - The Non-GAAP net profit is expected to increase from RMB 31.8 billion in 2024 to RMB 38.3 billion in 2026, indicating a steady growth trajectory [3][11]. Market Position - The report highlights the company's strong position in the gaming industry, with a focus on high-quality game production and successful IP utilization, which is expected to enhance long-term market confidence [1][2].