保利发展：业绩下滑明显，定向可转债获批

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has experienced a significant decline in performance, with a projected net profit of 5.02 billion yuan for 2024, down 58.4% year-on-year, which is below market expectations. This decline is attributed to a decrease in project delivery and a drop in gross profit margins due to market downturns [8] - The company remains the industry leader in sales, achieving a sales amount of 323.03 billion yuan in 2024, despite a 23.5% year-on-year decline. The company has focused on acquiring land in core first and second-tier cities [8] - The company has received approval for a targeted convertible bond issuance of up to 9.5 billion yuan, which is expected to enhance its financing advantages [8] - The report anticipates that after the accelerated clearing of the real estate market, the company will benefit from improved concentration and profitability, leading to greater development opportunities [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 346.89 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 23.4%. However, for 2024, revenue is expected to decline by 9.8% to 312.81 billion yuan [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 5.02 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a significant decrease of 58.4% compared to the previous year [6] - The company's gross profit margin is expected to remain low, with a forecasted gross margin of 14.0% for 2024 [6] - The company's asset-liability ratio stands at 74.89%, indicating a high level of debt [2] Sales and Market Position - The company achieved a sales area of 17.97 million square meters in 2024, down 24.71% year-on-year, but still maintains its position as the top seller in the industry [8] - The company acquired 37 land parcels in 2024, with a total acquisition amount of 68.25 billion yuan, a decrease of 57.4% year-on-year [8] - As of the end of Q3 2024, the company has a substantial land reserve of 52.86 million square meters and an ongoing construction area of 87.13 million square meters [8]