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台积电24Q4业绩回顾:AI仍是最强底牌,先进制程溢价持续
TSMTSMC(TSM) 申万宏源·2025-01-20 02:03

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TSMC, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance relative to the market [17]. Core Insights - TSMC's Q4 2024 revenue reached the upper limit of guidance at 26.88billion,reflectingayearoveryearincreaseof38.826.88 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 38.8% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 14.3%, driven by demand from Apple's new iPhone 16 series and the HPC sector [3][5]. - The advanced process nodes (3nm and 5nm) continue to show strong demand, with advanced process revenue accounting for 74% of total wafer revenue [3][5]. - The company expects significant growth in its HPC segment, projecting a 58% increase in 2024, while smartphone revenue is expected to grow by 23% [3][11]. - TSMC's average selling price (ASP) increased to approximately 7,866 per equivalent 12-inch wafer, up 11.7% quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to the higher proportion of 3nm products [3][13]. - Capital expenditure for 2024 is projected at 29.8billion,withplansfor2025setbetween29.8 billion, with plans for 2025 set between 38-42 billion, focusing on advanced processes and overseas expansion projects [3][14]. - The next-generation technology nodes, N2P and A16, are planned for mass production in the second half of 2026, with expectations of improved performance and efficiency [3][14]. Summary by Sections Q4 2024 Review - TSMC's revenue for Q4 2024 was 26.88billion,withagrossmarginof5926.88 billion, with a gross margin of 59%, benefiting from increased capacity utilization [5]. - The revenue breakdown by process node shows 26% from N3, 34% from N5, and 14% from N7, with advanced nodes (N7 and below) making up 74% of total revenue [5]. HPC and Other Segments - The HPC segment saw a quarter-over-quarter revenue increase of 19%, while smartphone revenue increased by 17% [11]. - The revenue contributions from various segments were 53% from HPC, 35% from smartphones, and smaller contributions from IoT, automotive, and DCE [11]. ASP and Wafer Shipments - TSMC shipped 3,418k equivalent 12-inch wafers in Q4 2024, marking a 2.4% increase quarter-over-quarter [13]. - The increase in ASP was driven by the higher share of 3nm products, particularly for high-end applications [13]. Capital Expenditure and Future Plans - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2024 is set at 29.8 billion, with a planned increase to $38-42 billion in 2025, focusing on advanced processes and overseas projects [14]. - The company is advancing its overseas expansion with projects in the U.S., Japan, and Germany [14]. Next-Generation Technology - TSMC plans to introduce N2P and A16 nodes in 2026, which are expected to enhance performance and efficiency significantly [14].