宏观周报（1月第3周）：四季度GDP超预期但依然量价背离

Macroeconomic Overview - Q4 GDP growth reached 5.4%, exceeding market expectations of 5% and contributing to an annual GDP growth of 5%[22] - December industrial value-added output grew by 6.2%, surpassing the expected 5.5%[22] - December retail sales increased by 3.7%, slightly above the expected 3.5%[22] Trade and Export Data - December exports rose by 10.7% year-on-year, exceeding the forecast of 7.5%, while imports grew by 1%, against an expected decline of 1%[10] - The trade surplus for December was $104.84 billion, higher than the anticipated$100 billion[10] Financial Data Insights - December new RMB loans totaled 990 billion, compared to 1.17 trillion in the same month last year, and above the forecast of 843 billion[16] - Social financing in December was 2.86 trillion, significantly higher than the previous year's 1.93 trillion and the expected 2.10 trillion[16] Market Reactions and Trends - The stock market saw a significant increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.31% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.73%[9] - The bond market experienced a rise in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 2.25 basis points[9] Risks and Challenges - The report highlights potential risks including slower-than-expected recovery in the economy and tighter-than-expected monetary policy from the Federal Reserve[5] - There are concerns regarding the impact of potential trade frictions on market sentiment and economic performance[5]