JCHX(603979) 光大证券·2025-01-21 03:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.53 billion to 1.62 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 48.37% to 57.09% [1] - The growth in performance is primarily driven by the stable growth of the mining service business and the production ramp-up of the Lonshi copper mine, which has an annual capacity of 40,000 tons [2][3] - The Lonshi copper mine expansion project is projected to generate an average annual profit of 2.12 billion USD, accounting for 114.5% of the company's total profit in 2023 [3] - The report expresses optimism about the upward trend in copper prices in 2025, citing stabilizing demand and a slowdown in global copper concentrate production growth [3] Summary by Sections Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 1.575 billion yuan for Q4 2024, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 50% [2] - The mining service business and the Lonshi copper mine's production are key contributors to this growth [2] Capacity - The Lonshi copper mine's total capacity will reach 100,000 tons after expansion, with a 7.5 billion USD investment planned for the eastern section of the mine [2] - The eastern section is expected to reach full production in the fourth year after construction, contributing to a total copper output of approximately 100,000 tons annually [2] Profitability and Valuation - The report adjusts profit forecasts based on LME copper prices for 2024-2026, predicting net profits of 1.57 billion, 2.18 billion, and 2.51 billion yuan respectively [4] - The projected P/E ratios for these years are 16X, 12X, and 10X, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [4]