房地产行业2024年12月统计局数据点评：24年全国商品房销售面积回到09年水平，投资跌幅创历史新高

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [25] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market in 2024 faced significant challenges, with national commodity housing sales area returning to 2009 levels and investment decline reaching historical highs [1] - December 2024 saw a slight year-on-year decrease in sales area by 0.5%, while sales amount increased by 2.4% year-on-year, indicating a mixed performance [2] - The overall real estate market is expected to continue facing adjustment pressures in 2024, but positive signals from government policies may lead to a narrowing of sales decline in 2025 [2] Summary by Sections 1. Commodity Housing Sales - December 2024 saw a total sales area of 1.13 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.5% and a sales amount of 1.16 trillion yuan, reflecting a 2.4% increase year-on-year [2] - The average sales price of commodity housing in December was 10,318 yuan per square meter, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [9] - The eastern region showed improvement in sales volume and price, while the overall market still faced downward pressure [2] 2. Commodity Residential Inventory - By the end of 2024, the broad inventory of commodity residential properties was 1.79 billion square meters, down 2.5% from the previous month and down 13.4% year-on-year [3] - The de-stocking cycle was 26.0 months, indicating a slight improvement in inventory management [3] 3. Real Estate Development Investment, New Starts, and Completion - In December 2024, real estate development investment amounted to 664.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 13.3% [12] - New construction area in December was 6.585 million square meters, down 23.0% year-on-year, although the decline was slightly less than in previous months [6] - The completion area in December was 25.59 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 30.4% [15] 4. Developer Financing - In December, the total funds available to developers decreased by 7.1% year-on-year, with both housing and non-housing funds showing weakness [6] - The total funds available for developers in 2024 was 10.77 trillion yuan, down 17.0% year-on-year [6] 5. Investment Recommendations - Short-term focus on the recovery of fundamental data following the implementation of supportive policies, and long-term attention on opportunities arising from urban renewal and land acquisition [6] - Recommended companies include those with strong liquidity, high market share in key cities, and those benefiting from debt relief and policy support [6]