2024年12月及四季度经济数据点评：供需均有改善助推实现GDP全年增长目标

Economic Growth - Q4 2024 GDP grew by 5.4% YoY, exceeding the expected 5.1% and previous 4.6%[3] - Full-year GDP growth for 2024 is 5.0%, slightly above the expected 4.9% and previous 5.3%[3] - GDP growth has maintained above 5% for two consecutive years, achieving the annual target of around 5%[9] Industrial and Investment Performance - December industrial added value increased by 6.2% YoY, surpassing the expected 5.5% and previous 5.4%[3] - Fixed asset investment from January to December 2024 grew by 3.2%, below the expected 3.4% and previous 3.3%[3] - Infrastructure investment showed stability with a 9.2% YoY increase, while real estate investment declined by 10.6% YoY[14][15] Consumer Spending Trends - December retail sales of consumer goods rose by 3.7% YoY, better than the expected 3.5% and previous 3.0%[3] - Final consumption expenditure contributed 2.2 percentage points to economic growth in 2024, with Q4 contributing 1.6 percentage points[12] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has significantly boosted sales in appliances and automobiles, with retail sales in these categories growing by 12.3% YoY[12] Export and Manufacturing Insights - Exports grew by 10.0% YoY in Q4, accelerating by approximately 4 percentage points from Q3[10] - Manufacturing investment maintained resilience with a 9.2% YoY increase, supported by high-tech manufacturing and favorable policies[17] Risks and Uncertainties - Potential risks include unexpected central bank adjustments, inflation, trade tensions, and geopolitical uncertainties[18]