PETROCHINA(601857) 光大证券·2025-01-21 09:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of China Petroleum, with current prices at 8.57 CNY and 6.12 HKD respectively [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of deepening reforms to enhance the resilience of the entire industry chain and to play a crucial role in energy supply security [5][6]. - The company aims to achieve high-quality development by focusing on improving energy supply capabilities, developing emerging industries, and enhancing technological independence [6][7]. - The report highlights the company's strong performance in 2024, with a significant increase in net profit compared to historical trends, showcasing its resilience against market fluctuations [10][11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The 2025 work meeting of China Petroleum Group was held to summarize 2024's achievements and outline key tasks for 2025 [4]. - The company aims to enhance its core business and achieve the goals set for the 14th Five-Year Plan [5]. Strategic Focus - Key strategic focuses for 2025 include improving energy supply efficiency, developing new industries, and enhancing management and governance [6][7]. - The company plans to maintain stable energy supply growth while adapting to market changes and enhancing its competitive edge [7][9]. Financial Performance - The report projects net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 1759 billion CNY, 1803 billion CNY, and 1850 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.96 CNY, 0.99 CNY, and 1.01 CNY [12][15]. - The company has shown a strong ability to withstand cyclical fluctuations, with a notable increase in net profit in 2024 compared to previous high oil price periods [10][11]. Valuation Metrics - The report maintains the earnings forecast and valuation metrics, with a projected P/E ratio for A-shares decreasing from 10.5 in 2022 to 8.5 in 2026 [15][19]. - The company is expected to maintain a healthy dividend yield, projected at 3.0% for 2025 and 2026 [19].