房地产行业第3周周报：本周楼市成交环比走弱；24年商品房销售量回到09年水平，投资跌幅创历史新高

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the real estate industry, indicating a "stronger than market" rating for the sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the current direction of the industry is towards "stabilizing and stopping the decline," with expectations for policies to become more effective and supportive of market activity in the future [3]. - It notes that new home transaction volumes have shown a narrowing decline, while second-hand home transactions have turned negative on a month-over-month basis, indicating a mixed market performance [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies aimed at revitalizing the real estate market, including the adjustment of housing supply systems and the promotion of urban renewal projects [3]. Summary by Sections 1. New Home Market Tracking - In the week of January 11-17, 2025, new home transaction volume in 40 cities was 232.4 million square meters, reflecting a month-over-month decline of 2.0% but a year-over-year increase of 6.5% [5][11]. - The report details that first-tier cities experienced a year-over-year transaction growth reduction of 19.2 percentage points, while second-tier cities saw an increase of 3.8 percentage points [5][11]. 2. Second-Hand Home Market Tracking - The second-hand home transaction area in 18 cities was 198.6 million square meters, with a month-over-month decline of 3.1% and a year-over-year increase of 8.5%, indicating a significant reduction in growth compared to previous weeks [5][11]. 3. Inventory and Depletion Cycle - The new home inventory in 12 cities was 9.107 million square meters, with a month-over-month decrease of 1.2% and a year-over-year decrease of 12.5% [5][36]. - The average depletion cycle for new home inventory across 12 cities is 11.9 months, which has decreased slightly from the previous month [5][36]. 4. Land Market Tracking - The total land transaction area in 100 cities was 1,083.7 million square meters, reflecting a month-over-month decline of 39.3% and a year-over-year decline of 9.6% [5][7]. - The average land price per square meter was 4,911 yuan, showing a significant month-over-month decrease of 71.1% but a year-over-year increase of 10.1% [5][7]. 5. Investment and Financing - The total issuance of domestic bonds in the real estate sector was 195.2 billion yuan, representing a month-over-month increase of 25.0% but a year-over-year decrease of 0.3% [5][8]. - The report indicates that the net financing amount for the sector was 35.3 billion yuan, highlighting a challenging financing environment despite some improvements [5][8]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines of investment: companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms showing significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition, and firms benefiting from local government debt relief strategies [5].