TRIP.COM(09961) 国信证券·2025-01-22 00:47Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights that Ctrip Group has achieved a doubling stock performance in 2024, with a 95% increase in Hong Kong stocks, driven by sustained travel demand and improved operational efficiency compared to pre-pandemic levels [4][5] - The resilience of domestic travel demand is supported by government policies aimed at boosting cultural and tourism consumption, with a notable increase in domestic travel participants and revenue growth [4][10] - The company's hotel business is expected to stabilize in pricing, with a projected recovery in hotel room rates in 2025, supported by increased online penetration and demand [4][25] - Ctrip's outbound tourism segment is anticipated to contribute significantly to growth, with international flight capacity recovering and a projected 17% increase in international flights in 2025 [4][50] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Ctrip Group has positioned itself as a leading player in the online travel agency (OTA) sector, benefiting from a strong recovery in domestic and outbound travel markets [3][4] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2024, Ctrip's revenue grew by 19%, and Non-GAAP net profit increased by 44% compared to the previous year [4][5] - The company has maintained a stable commission rate for hotels, with expectations for room rates to stabilize in 2025 [25][34] Market Trends - The report notes a shift in consumer behavior towards experiential travel, with domestic tourism showing a double-digit growth in participants [10][17] - Ctrip's online penetration in the hotel sector is expected to improve, with a current online booking rate of approximately 40% for hotels compared to over 70% in the US [4][26] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that Ctrip's international business will continue to expand, with a focus on enhancing its market share in outbound travel as international flight capacities recover [44][50] - Government policies aimed at boosting service consumption and tourism are expected to provide a favorable environment for Ctrip's growth in 2025 [10][12]